Filling California’s gap in degree recipients
The Public Policy Institute of California projects the state will face a shortfall of 1.1 million workers in 2030 who have at least a bachelor’s degree. UC has committed to adding more than 160,000 bachelor’s degree recipients by 2029-30, by increasing graduation rates and improving timely graduation. By 2030, UC’s goal is to have nine of ten undergraduates leave with a degree, and to improve four-year freshmen graduation rates to 76 percent, and two-year transfer graduation rates to 70 percent. In addition, UC’s goal is to eliminate gaps in timely graduation for California’s Pell Grant recipients, first-generation students, and underrepresented groups (URG). UC seeks to partner with the State by receiving financial support to scale up promising programs and strategies that will help campuses achieve these goals. To date, UC has not received this financial support. Below is a progress report on these critical goals and other undergraduate alumni outcomes.
UC’s four-year graduation rates for freshmen have risen significantly over the past 18 years — from 46 percent for the 1997 entering cohort to 71 percent for the 2016 cohort. The most recent six-year graduation rate, for the 2014 entering cohort, is 86 percent (3.1.1), which has increased by seven percentage points since 1996. The six-year graduation rate is 88 percent when this measure includes students who transfer to non-UC institutions (3.1.2) and still graduate within six years. In addition, time to degree has steadily improved. The most recent freshman entrants are taking an average of 4.15 years (3.1.8) to graduate, an improvement on the 2000 cohort, which took 4.33 years.
Transfer entrants have made similar gains, with two-year graduation rates increasing from 37 percent for the 1997 entering cohort to 61 percent for the 2018 cohort (3.1.3). The most recent four-year graduation rate for transfers (2016 entering cohort) is 89 percent, an increase of about ten percentage points since 1997. The average time to degree is 2.4 years for the 2013 cohort, an improvement from 2.6 years for the 1996 cohort (3.1.8).
Although the overall freshman and transfer graduation rates have increased and are showing good progress toward UC 2030 goals, there are still gaps in rates between subgroups (3.1.4, 3.1.5, 3.1.6, and 3.1.7). Low-income students, first-generation students, and URG students have lower average graduation rates, especially four-year graduation rates for freshmen, and two-year graduation rates for transfers.
Improving graduation rates and eliminating gaps
The UC Office of the President and campuses have employed predictive analytics to obtain a better understanding of factors that influence graduation rates. Findings indicate that pre-college factors such as academic preparedness measured by high school GPA, the rigor of students’ high school or transfer courses, standardized test scores, and demographics are related to, but only explain a small portion of, variance in time to degree and graduation rates. Campus climate, access to courses, student sense of belonging, student engagement in academic and civic activities, and success in the first year at college, among many other factors, are important to college completion and timely graduation.
To address challenges facing students and campuses, and reach UC’s goal of improving graduation rates, UC campuses have identified, and where possible are expanding, a wide range of programs to promote the academic success of undergraduates and eliminate gaps in graduation rates, particularly for new generation students. These include expanding orientation, advising, and counseling services; increasing on-campus work opportunities; redesigning and removing achievement gaps in entry courses with large enrollments; streamlining course prerequisites, course sequences, and degree requirements; summer research and summer bridge programs; increasing access to summer session courses; developing pedagogical strategies for the diversification of classrooms and instruction; and conducting learning analytics to assist students who might need additional support. Increased State support would help campuses scale up these programs, particularly those that seek to eliminate equity gaps.
Students who take longer to graduate leave with more debt, have lower lifetime earnings, and are less likely to go on to graduate school. Recognizing the importance of early student success for on-time graduation, UC campuses are specifically making efforts to improve first-year student success. Many campuses offer summer bridge, transfer edge, extended orientation, and/or first-year seminars to assist students with the transition to UC. Campuses are also making advising mandatory for first-year students. Many UC campuses offer first-year students the opportunity to work on a research project with a faculty member. UC recently launched the systemwide First-Generation Faculty Initiative, which connects first-generation students to both faculty and staff mentors.
Undergraduate outcomes
The number of undergraduate degrees awarded by UC grew from about 32,900 degrees in 2000–01 to about 49,400 degrees in 2014–15, and 57,000 degrees in 2019–20 (3.3.1). Increases in the size of the entering freshman class and improving graduation rates contributed to this growth. As mentioned earlier, UC has proposed to improve degree attainment and produce 200,000 more degrees in addition to the projected baseline of one million degrees over the next 15 years, between 2015–16 and 2029–30. About 80 percent of these additional degrees (160,000) would be at the undergraduate level. UC is making progress to achieve that goal.
UC undergraduate alumni enroll at graduate schools or work in various industries. Four years after graduation, more than one-quarter of bachelor’s degree recipients have enrolled in graduate or professional programs. More than half are working in key industries such as health care, K–12 education, finance & insurance, public administration, social assistance, higher education, engineering, and internet and computer systems. Many alumni work in industries that closely align with the majors they chose. By ten years after graduation, 56 percent of engineering & computer science majors work in engineering, manufacturing, or internet and computer systems; 30 percent of life science majors work in health care; and 34 percent of arts & humanities majors are working in K–12, higher education, or performing arts and entertainment.
UC alumni working in California surpass the typical earnings of other California bachelor’s degree recipients (aged 25 and over) by six years after graduation. The earnings trajectory of UC alumni increases rapidly; ten years after graduation they double what they were earning two years after graduation, on average (3.3.2). Economic success is prevalent for all socioeconomic groups, including students whose families qualified for federal Pell Grants. Within five years of graduation, the majority of Pell Grant recipients earn an average income higher than their parents’ combined incomes during the time those students attended UC (approximately $50,000).
Looking forward
UC campuses have identified promising strategies that, if increased in scale, could help achieve ambitious UC 2030 goals. The University has not yet received State funding to expand these programs and strategies. While the current data available have not shown a significant immediate effect from the shift to remote instruction on student success and retention, the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on student success and retention is unclear. UC will continue to track these measures, including for UC’s future freshman and transfer entrants coming from California high schools and community colleges, who may have widely varying experiences during this period of remote instruction.
For more information
UC 2030 systemwide and campus dashboards
Graduation rates and goals by campus, gender, Pell, residency status, race/ethnicity, and other factors
Eliminating gaps in timely graduation
UC’s report on Advising Strategies to Support Timely Graduation
UC’s undergraduate alumni outcomes, including employment industries and earnings
Beyond economic impact, understanding societal impacts and public value of a UC degree
Total degrees awarded by degree type, campus, gender, and race/ethnicity
UC’s role in enabling low-income students to achieve intergenerational economic mobility
UC First-Generation Faculty Initiative
